Four teams have already clinched spots in the NFL playoffs and four more can clinch this weekend. And there probably are four other teams who are close enough to clinching that they can feel pretty secure.
So really, there aren’t many NFL playoff spots truly up for grabs with four games left in the regular season. But believe it or not, there are still 11 teams currently on the outside of the playoff picture who haven’t been mathematically eliminated yet.
For the most part, their chances of reaching the playoffs are slim, but they can still at least cling to various levels of hope. A few of those hopes are even a little bit realistic.
So here’s a look at those 11 teams on the bubble and their chances of avoiding the seemingly inevitable burst (with playoff probability percentages from the Next Gen Stats):
Their wild win over the Bills on Sunday might as well have been a warning shot to all the teams they’re chasing. They can be a very dangerous offensive team and they’re starting to show signs of clicking. They’re only one game back in both the NFC West and the wild-card chase and are capable of keeping the pressure on. It won’t be easy with trips to San Francisco and New York (to face the Jets) the next two weeks. But they finish with a golden opportunity, with division games at home against the reeling Cardinals and the first–place Seahawks.
Playoff chances: 33%
Outlook: Pretty good with Matthew Stafford’s arm, Sean McVay’s mind and those Rams receivers.
A month ago, they looked like the favorites to win the NFC South, but they have been in a wild freefall since. They’ve lost their last four games and, even worse, quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown eight interceptions and no touchdown passes during that stretch. They’re still only a game out of the division lead and they own the tiebreaker over the first-place Bucs, but the way they’re playing right now, one game seems like 10.
Playoff chances: 39%
Outlook: Not terrible, but only if Captain Kirk shakes out of his funk.
They might be two games back in both the AFC South and the wild-card race with four games to go, but the Broncos can put them out of their misery by beating them in Denver on Sunday. That’s a big step up in class for the Colts, who are 2-4 in their last six games with their only wins coming over the lowly Patriots and Jets. They really need quarterback Anthony Richardson to start playing up his potential, but that doesn’t seem likely against the Denver defense.
Playoff chances: 25%
Outlook: Not good, though if they somehow beat Denver everything will change.
They’ve won four of their last five games and finally are looking like the offensive juggernaut everyone expected to be now that Tua Tagovailoa is back and healthy. They just dug too big of a hole for themselves with their 2-6 start. They have a soft enough schedule (at Houston, vs. San Francisco, at Cleveland, at the Jets) that they’ll probably finish with nine or even 10 wins. They just need the Ravens, Chargers or Broncos to fall a little bit back in their direction in the wild-card chase. And that doesn’t seem very likely.
Playoff chances: 14%
Outlook: Not great, but if one of the other contenders falters even a little, watch out.
Boy, did they blow their shot coming out of the bye week, losing twice in three games to the Seattle Seahawks. They were leading the NFC West and now they’re essentially three games back (two, plus the tiebreaker) with three to go. They’ve lost three straight and have a shot to fix a lot over the next two weeks against the Panthers and Patriots, but by the time they get right there likely won’t be enough time left to get back in the race.
Playoff chances: 9%
Outlook: They’re going to kick themselves when they realize it’s over.
They haven’t looked like themselves since opening day, and it was pretty clear by Week 2 that this season was going to be a struggle. Still, they’re only two games back. Their Super Bowl is Sunday at home against the Los Angeles Rams. If they win and the Seahawks lose, their chances are going to shoot way up.
Playoff chances: 6%
Outlook: They better win on Sunday.
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase might be the best QB-WR duo in football and it remains unbelievable that this team is so far behind. They are good enough — at least offensively — to win all of their remaining games. But they’re already three games back in the wild-card race with four to play, so even then they’d need way too much help. Plus, even if they got it, Zac Taylor would find a way to blow it.
Playoff chances: 3%
Outlook: What a waste.
They have won three of four since they fired Dennis Allen, but it’s all a bit too little, too late, especially that they’ve now lost quarterback Derek Carr (again) to an injury. Also, any miracle comeback would have been undone by a season-ending schedule that includes the Commanders, Packers and Bucs.
Playoff chances: <1%
Outlook: Hey, at least they didn’t lose to the Giants.
They really thought they could make a run with their remaining schedule, but they blew it on Monday night with that Leon Lett play and the crushing loss to the Bengals. The truth is, with Cooper Rush at quarterback, a miracle run was never going to happen. At this point, even if they win out there are too many teams in front of them that would need to lose a lot.
Playoff chances: <1%
Outlook: Forget it, even if Jerry Jones won’t.
Remember when they were 4-2 heading into their bye week? It’s been quite a cliff dive since then. They’ve lost seven straight games and still have to face the Vikings, Lions, Seahawks and Packers? Wow. The football gods are clearly angry at Chicago.
Playoff chances: <1%
Outlook: They have a slim chance to not end the season on an 11-game losing streak.
The number of things that would have to happen for this miracle to occur is astronomical. Their faint hopes will likely end on Sunday, but their odds of making the 2025 playoffs seem to look better with every game they play.
Playoff chances: <1%
Outlook: See you next year.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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