It’s far too harsh to call it the “rookie wall,” but this year’s much-praised class of first-year quarterbacks — led by the Commanders‘ Jayden Daniels, the Broncos‘ Bo Nix, the Bears‘ Caleb Williams and the Patriots‘ Drake Maye — has seen its precocious start drop off a bit from its peak a month ago.
In Week 6, we noted that the rookies had combined for 12 touchdown passes — the most by rookies in any week in any season in NFL history — but in four weeks since, they’ve totaled 13, closer to normal rookie production.
It’s the reality of being a rookie quarterback in the NFL. The rookies have gone 1-3 in each of the last two weeks. Amazing upset bids can come up short, like Nix’s Broncos against the Chiefs, scuttled by a blocked field goal. Promising comebacks can do the same, as Daniels threw an 8-yard pass on fourth-and-9 in trying to rally Washington in a one-point loss to the Steelers.
And Williams has seen a decidedly rough patch where the Bears offense stalled so completely that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired Tuesday. After a 4-2 start, the Bears have dropped three straight and averaged 9 points a game in that slide. Williams hasn’t had a single touchdown in those three games, and after completing 65% of his passes in the first six games, he’s at 51% in the past three.
One thing this year’s rookie quarterbacks have managed to avoid consistently are interceptions. Of this year’s rookie starters, only Maye (3.3%) has an interception percentage above 2%. For comparison, all the rookies in 2022 were over 2%. This year, the class average is 1.77%, down from 2.06 last year, 2.94% in 2022 and 3.21% in 2021.
This is a challenging week for the four rookies: Daniels has a spotlight game Thursday night at Philadelphia, Williams will get his first shot with new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown at home against the Packers, and the Broncos host the division-leading Falcons. Maye has the easiest of the lot, at home against the Rams, but chances are it’s another 1-3 week ahead for the rookie QB starters.
Will the Bears and Caleb Williams rebound after firing OC Shane Waldron?
Adonai Mitchell finally arrives
The top tier of this year’s rookie receiver class — nine taken in the first 34 picks — has been outstanding in making an immediate impact, but the rest of the drafted receivers have struggled to get catches, let alone touchdowns.
Patriots second-rounder Ja’Lynn Polk has 80 receiving yards all season, Jets third-rounder Malachi Corley has 6 yards, and Steelers third-rounder Roman Wilson, limited by injuries, has played in one game, with no catches.
Colts second-round pick Adonai Mitchell had also struggled for much of his rookie season. Entering Sunday’s game, he had just 12 catches on 32 targets — that’s a 37.5% catch rate, third-lowest in the entire NFL (with as many targets) behind Polk (37.0%) and Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks (37.2%).
But facing the Bills last Sunday, Mitchell stepped up in a big way, filling in for an injured Michael Pittman Jr. and connecting with quarterback Joe Flacco. Mitchell had six catches on six targets for 71 yards, five good for first downs. It came in a losing effort, but for the first time this season, he showed the promise he had in scoring 11 touchdowns at Texas last season.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. emerges for New York
The Giants have lost five straight games, but a bright spot continues to be rookie running back Tracy, a fifth-round pick who played at Iowa and Purdue. Since taking over as the primary back six weeks ago, Tracy ranks fifth in the NFL with 516 rushing yards, and his average of 5.4 yards per carry is good enough that only the Ravens‘ Derrick Henry and the Eagles‘ Saquon Barkley have better averages on as many carries over the past six games.
The Giants are contemplating a quarterback change from Daniel Jones, but a smart decision would just be to use Tracy more in the red zone. New York has the worst red-zone offense in the NFL, not only in terms of scoring, but with five red-zone turnovers as well. They’ve had 82 plays inside the opposing 20 and have turned to Tracy on just 13 of them — about 15% — and ramping that number up, either in the run game or passing, would help whoever plays quarterback.
Another rookie shining for Rams
No team has gotten more from its rookies than the Rams, and the depth of that group — 18 rookies on the 53-man roster at one point — can be seen in undrafted rookie linebacker Omar Speights. He made the roster as a special-teams player, but an injury to Troy Reeder has put Speights on the field on defense in the past three weeks. He had eight tackles in 39 snaps in Monday’s loss to the Dolphins, after totaling just six all season. The impact on both sides of the ball from the Rams’ rookie class is something that will give them an inexpensive core for years to come, and Speights only adds to that cache of young talent.
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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