Sports Mole previews Thursday’s Europa League playoff between Ajax and Jagiellonia Bialystok, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
With one foot already in the Europa League group phase, Ajax aim to confirm their place via the playoffs, as they reconvene with Jagiellonia Bialystok on Thursday.
The Dutch giants hold a three-goal lead before kickoff at Johan Cruijff ArenA, despite trailing early on in last week’s first leg.
Match preview
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Shocked by conceding a fifth-minute goal in Poland last Thursday, Ajax responded in the best possible style, scoring twice before half time and taking control of the first leg.
Chuba Akpom went on to complete a hat-trick during the second half at Stadion Miejski, resulting in a comprehensive 4-1 away win for the Amsterdam club, who had already come through two rounds to reach the playoffs.
It took a dramatic 34-kick penalty shootout to overcome Panathinaikos, having previously seen off Vojvodina in the second qualifying round, when a 4-1 aggregate victory saw them start a new season with four straight wins for the first time in two decades.
New coach Francesco Farioli arrived after a dismal 2023-24 campaign, in which the four-time champions of Europe finished 35 points adrift of Eredivisie champions PSV Eindhoven and were briefly embroiled in the relegation zone.
The highly-rated Italian seems to be settling in well, though his team did lose their most recent league fixture, going down 2-1 away to NAC Breda.
Having benefited from a weekend off to aid their European ambitions, Ajax – who lost in the Conference League’s last 16 last term – will now expect to book their place in UEFA’s new-look Europa League.
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The prize of eight group games in Europe’s second-tier tournament seems to have slipped from Jagiellonia’s grasp, though it seemed a very different story when they seized the lead last week, through an early strike from Adrian Dieguez.
Barring an improbable comeback in the Netherlands, last season’s Ekstraklasa winners will now have to settle for a spot in the Conference League.
After being crowned Polish champions for the very first time, Jaga started this summer’s continental campaign in Champions League qualifying, where they cruised past Panevezys in the second round before falling to a 5-1 aggregate defeat against Norway’s Bodo/Glimt.
Adrian Siemieniec‘s side had previously started their domestic title defence by posting three wins from three, but that setback in Europe kicked off a streak of five straight defeats across all competitions.
Including a 3-1 defeat to GKS Katowice in their most recent league fixture, Jagiellonia have shipped some 16 goals during that run, so their priority on Thursday will be keeping the back door shut.
Ajax Europa League form:
Ajax form (all competitions):
Jagiellonia Bialystok Europa League form:
Jagiellonia Bialystok form (all competitions):
Team News
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Surely with one eye on De Klassieker – Ajax will meet old foes Feyenoord on Sunday – Francesco Farioli may be tempted to rotate his squad a little for the second leg.
New signing Daniele Rugani, who has just arrived on loan from Juventus, could be brought into the hosts’ back four, while Brian Brobbey, Bertrand Traore and Branco van den Boomen head the queue for promotion from the bench. It remains to be seen whether young Kian Fitz-Jim will return from injury.
Two players likely to be retained for their experience, though, are veteran goalkeeper Remko Pasveer – who saved five penalties in the shootout win over Panathinaikos – and skipper Jordan Henderson.
Captain Jesus Imaz has led the way for Jagiellonia in European qualifying, scoring three goals so far, and the Spanish striker is set to join either Lamine Diaby-Fadiga or Afimico Pululu up front.
The latter found the net in Jaga’s league defeat to Katowice, and he will hope that earns him a start in Europe after being benched last week.
Midfielder Damian Wojdakowski is sidelined for the long term by an ACL injury, but the visitors should otherwise be free to select from a full squad.
Ajax possible starting lineup:
Pasveer; Rensch, Sutalo, Rugani, Hato; Taylor, Henderson, Van den Boomen; Traore, Brobbey, Godts
Jagiellonia Bialystok possible starting lineup:
Abramowicz; Sacek, Skrzpczak, Dieguez, Moutinho; Marczuk, Nene, Romanczuk, Churlinov; Imaz; Pululu
We say: Ajax 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok (Ajax win 6-2 on aggregate)
Having almost ensured qualification last week, Ajax can afford to keep something in reserve ahead of Sunday’s Klassieker – the first of Francesco Farioli’s tenure.
Even if changes are made, they should still overcome an ailing Jagiellonia side that cannot stop leaking goals and will be bereft of confidence.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
