Jorgen Strand Larsen’s seventh minute goal to give Wolverhampton Wanderers the lead on Sunday may have surprised many, but few expected the scoring would end there. After all, the winless Wolves were up against the unbeaten reigning champions Manchester City, whose dominance has been coupled with a sense of inevitability that things will turn in their favor – and they did, to some degree.
Josko Gvardiol’s stellar 33rd minute equalizer meant City had about an hour to find a game-winner and with nearly 80% of the ball, 20-plus shots and a star-studded roster, the odds undoubtedly favored them. That goal came, eventually, courtesy of a stoppage-time winner from John Stones, the inevitable outcome technically achieved. Yet, the excellence that has defined them for nearly a decade was nowhere to be seen at the Molineux Stadium, instead, Pep Guardiola’s side spent the better part of an hour looking downright average before that winner arrived.
City may have outshot Wolves 22 to three, posting seven shots on target to the opponent’s two, but their attacking might was nowhere to be found on Sunday. For all their work, they mustered just 1.6 expected goals, an unimpressive output compared to the 0.81 expected goals Wolves posted with far fewer attempts at goal. It matches the performance they strung together at Wolves, too – they seemed out of ideas in the center of the park, aimlessly passing the ball around and then taking shots from distance that were never destined to cause much damage.
Their inability to create meaningful goalscoring opportunities is not an isolated problem, either. They lost the expected goals battle in their last two Premier League matches, a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United and a 3-2 win over Fulham. The margin of defeat in that statistical category was noticeable on both occasions, too – Newcastle generated 1.57 xG from 11 shots, better than the 0.91 xG City posted from 16 shots, while Fulham had 2.6 xG from 11 shots and City had 1.57 xG from 20 attempts at goal.
Though City still rank second in the league for expected goals, the last few weeks reflect a worrying downward trend after losing star midfielder Rodri to an ACL injury last month. Guardiola has largely relied on Mateo Kovacic in his absence, partnering him with Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva in midfield on Sunday. Though the trio were not solely responsible for City’s uninspiring performance at Wolves, they did little to kick off an energetic attacking response after Strand Larsen’s early goal. They, like their teammates, offered the latest reminder that the gap left by the unrivaled Rodri will be incredibly difficult to fill.
City’s problems might be bigger than Rodri, though. The games against Newcastle and Fulham in particular reveal some defensive vulnerabilities that have also led them to concede nine goals in eight league games. Though they still score in big numbers, allowing their attack to cancel out some of their defensive weaknesses, the margins of their victories are tighter. The pattern, if it continues, will slowly chip away at the feeling of inevitability that has been part of City’s title-winning package during Guardiola’s time in charge.
They may still have enough to stay in the title race; after all, they still boast one of Europe’s best squads and an elite manager who has a reputation for bailing himself out of trouble with a stroke of tactical genius. The version of City that Guardiola and outgoing director of football Txiki Begiristain built, though, is undoubtedly on its last legs. Players like Ederson, Rodri, Kovacic, Gundogan, Silva, Kevin de Bruyne, Kyle Walker, Manuel Akanji and more are either pushing 30 or have already reached that milestone birthday, forcing Begiristain’s successor to lead a massive rebuild – with or without Guardiola.
As Arsenal deals with their own issues and Liverpool continue a strong start to life under Arne Slot, it could create another fascinating Premier League title race in the short term. The long term, though, poses even bigger questions of City, who look as if they are finally running out of gas and, one way or another, will need to find a way to reinvent themselves as a series of existential crises loom over one of England’s most dominant teams.
