Vaughn Dalzell predicts the right sie in Game 3 between the Suns and Timberwolves.
Timberwolves at Suns (-3.5): O/U 208.5
After suffering the worst rebounding margin in Suns’ playoff history (52-28), Phoenix won the rebounding edge in Game 2 (41-39) but was out-scored 55-42 in the second half for a 105-93 loss.
Entering a home Game 3 down 0-2 in the series is the ultimate desperation spot, which is why I am backing the Suns. Despite another double-digit loss, there were improvements from Game 1 to 2 for the Suns.
Despite the trio of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant combining for fewer points (52) on a worse field goal percentage (40%) in Game 2, the Suns’ role players improved and matched Minnesota’s physicality for most of the game after being out-scored 41-18 in Game 1 (Suns 28, Wolves 17 in Game 2).
Eric Gordon showed promise off the bench with 15 points on 5-of-9 from the field, which is important because Grayson Allen exited with an ankle injury during Game 2.
Jusuf Nurkic was much more physical and his presence made a difference (10 points, 14 rebounds), but there is work to be done with who gets Drew Eubanks’ minutes in the rotation because he has to go.
David Roddy and Nassir Little are two options to replace Eubanks if Phoenix goes small ball because they need help if Royce O’Neale isn’t giving much offensively.
However, with the same type of physicality, fewer turnovers (19), and better shooting due to being the home team, I think the Suns win Game 3 and make this series interesting.
I risked 2 units and played the Suns on the ML at -170 odds on DraftKings. This is the last chance for Phoenix to make this a series unless they want to be blown out and swept at home in Game 4.
I would play the -3.5 or -4 if you prefer the -110 odds. I also threw in the Thunder’s Game 2 ML (-320) versus the Pelicans for a +106 parlay.
Pick: Suns ML (Risk 2u), Suns Game 3 ML and Thunder Game 2 ML Parlay (1u)
Season Record: 38-27 (58.4%) +12.51 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
Risk 2u: Clippers vs Mavericks Series Over 5.5 Games (-195)
Risk 2u: Cavaliers to win series vs Magic (-184)
Risk 1.5u: Nuggets -1.5 series spread vs Lakers (-140)
Risk 1.55u: Celtics to sweep the Heat 4-0 (-155)
1u: Cavaliers to win Game 1 vs Magic and series (-110)
1u: Knicks to win series vs 76ers (-118)
1u: Knicks to win Game 1 vs 76ers and series (+170)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
1u: Thunder to sweep the Pelicans 4-0 (+225)
0.5u: Nuggets and Cavs to sweep Lakers and Magic (+1038)
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