Permutations in Europe: What’s still at stake in final weeks of season?

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Four of Europe’s top leagues have already crowned their champions with plenty of time to spare, but there’s still much to play for as we head into the final weeks of the domestic seasons. With the continent’s top tiers all barreling toward a conclusion this month, here’s what’s left to be decided across the biggest leagues.

Note: This story will be updated weekly until the end of the season.

Premier League

Title race

This is the only actual race remaining in Europe’s top five leagues. What was once a three-team battle is now a two-horse race, as Liverpool’s untimely slump left Arsenal and Manchester City in a straight scrap. The Gunners are seeking their first league title in 20 years but may be powerless to stop Pep Guardiola’s men, who’ll secure an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League crown by winning their final two matches.

European qualification

The Premier League was unable to net an additional Champions League place for next season, so only the top four will qualify. Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool are already in.

Aston Villa are on the verge of securing fourth place. Tottenham Hotspur, whose Champions League hopes flatlined following an untimely four-match losing skid, need Unai Emery’s side to drop at least four points to have a chance of snatching a berth.

Villa are assured of at least fifth place and a spot in the Europa League should they miss out on the top four. Spurs, despite their rotten run, are still the favorites to finish fifth.

The remaining European places are dependent on the outcome of the FA Cup final. If Manchester United win the trophy, they automatically go to the Europa League. If Manchester City beat their rivals in a second consecutive final and retain the silverware, that Europa League spot transfers to the sixth-placed finisher in the league, which could still end up being … Manchester United.

A late-season surge has suddenly put Chelsea right in the mix for a European place.

The aforementioned FA Cup outcome will also play a role in deciding the Europa Conference League (UECL) representative. If Man City are victorious, the UECL berth will go to the team that finishes seventh in the table; the same is true if Man United win the FA Cup and also finish sixth.

Relegation and promotion

The fight for survival is nearly over. Sheffield United, with just three wins from 37 games and a Premier League-record 101 goals conceded, are heading back to the Championship a year after getting promoted. Vincent Kompany’s Burnley are going down with them.

Luton Town need to win on the last day of the season and hope Nottingham Forest lose by a significant margin to avoid joining them.

Leicester City and Ipswich Town grabbed the two automatic promotion places from the Championship; the Foxes are making an immediate return, while the Tractor Boys are going back to the top flight after a 22-year absence. The always thrilling promotion playoffs will decide the last team to make the jump, with Leeds United, Southampton, West Bromwich Albion, and Norwich City taking part. The playoff final is slated for May 26.

La Liga

Title race

Real Madrid were crowned Spanish champions for a record-extending 36th time.

European qualification

Real Madrid and Barcelona are assured of Champions League spots. They’ll be joined, incredibly, by Girona, whose Cinderella season will yield a first-ever berth in the competition. Michel’s team clinched the spot by defeating Barca. Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid are in pole position to finish fourth.

Athletic’s Copa del Rey triumph, combined with the fact that they’re likely to finish in the top six, means La Liga’s Europa League places should go to the fifth- and sixth-placed finishers in the table. The team that finishes seventh will head to the Conference League.

Relegation and promotion

Almeria picked up just their second win of the season earlier this month, but it was too little, too late. They’ve been relegated, along with Granada, whose fate was confirmed hours before a 4-0 loss to Madrid. Several other teams are still in danger of going down, too, with Cadiz in the most precarious spot of that bunch.

Nobody has secured promotion from the second tier as of yet, but Leganes, Valladolid, and Eibar are in pole position.

Bundesliga

Title race

Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen, still unbeaten in all competitions this season, have already clinched their first-ever Bundesliga title.

European qualification

The Bundesliga earned an extra Champions League spot for next season, meaning five teams will compete in the 2024-25 event. Those places have already been determined; Leverkusen, whose historic unbeaten run now stands at 49 games, will be joined by Stuttgart, Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, and Borussia Dortmund. The latter’s win over PSG in the Champions League semifinal sealed the additional berth for Germany’s top flight.

There’s still intrigue here, though. If Dortmund finish fifth and win the Champions League this season, the sixth-placed finisher in the Bundesliga will also head to the tournament next year. That scenario, once farfetched, is now very much in play after Edin Terzic’s side upset PSG to reach the Champions League final.

The identity of Germany’s two Europa League entrants will be dictated, in part, by the DFB-Pokal final on May 25, where Leverkusen will take on a Kaiserslautern side that’s mired in a relegation battle … in the second tier. Should they pull off the stunning upset, they’ll earn one of Germany’s Europa League berths, while the other will go to the Bundesliga’s sixth-placed finisher. If Leverkusen win, the Europa places go to the sixth- and seventh-placed finishers.

At present, the seventh-placed team will make the Conference League, but the DFB-Pokal final result could bump that berth down to the eighth-placed squad.

Each of the clubs listed in the table above will be Leverkusen fans on May 25.

Relegation and promotion

The bottom two in the 18-team Bundesliga are relegated automatically, while the squad that finishes 16th enters a playoff against the third-placed finisher from the 2. Bundesliga. Darmstadt have already been sent packing, FC Koln appear likely to join them, and three teams are fighting to avoid finishing in the playoff spot, including Union Berlin, who participated in the Champions League group stage this season. How quickly fortunes change.

Holstein Kiel will play in the Bundesliga for the first time in club history next season, with St. Pauli likely to follow them up.

Serie A

Title race

Inter Milan, the dominant force in Italy this year, clinched their 20th Scudetto with last month’s win over city rivals AC Milan.

European qualification

Just like Germany, Italy also earned an extra Champions League place for next season, so at least five teams will qualify. Both Milanese clubs have punched their tickets. Despite a horrible run in 2024, Juventus need just one win to qualify. Bologna’s fairytale campaign also looks set to culminate with a Champions League place.

That likely leaves Atalanta, Roma, and Lazio to battle for fifth place; Atalanta and Roma meet on Sunday in a massive contest.

Serie A could yet send six teams to the Champions League if Atalanta win the Europa League. For that to happen, La Dea will need to do something nobody else has accomplished this season: beat Bayer Leverkusen. They meet in the Europa League final on May 22.

If Gian Piero Gasperini’s men do that and finish outside the top four, sixth in the league could be enough to qualify for the Champions League.

With Fiorentina set to play in the Conference League final against Olympiacos on May 29, there is a scenario in which Serie A could send nine teams to European competitions next season, as outlined by Dale Johnson of ESPN:

Relegation and promotion

The bottom three sides go down to Serie B. Salernitana, who have just two wins all season, have been relegated. Two Serie A mainstays could join them. Sassuolo, despite beating Inter twice this season, are in serious danger of seeing their 11-year run in the top flight come to an end. Meanwhile, Udinese, who have been in the top division since 1995 and have made several appearances in Europe in that time, are on their third manager of the campaign as they look to avoid a shocking relegation. With matches against fellow relegation battlers Empoli and Frosinone to close out the year, Udinese, now coached by Fabio Cannavaro, control their fate.

Iconic Italian outfit Parma and Como, the ambitious club from the picturesque city that counts Thierry Henry and Cesc Fabregas as minority shareholders, have already secured promotion back to Serie A. Venezia, Cremonese, Catanzaro, Palermo, Sampdoria, and Brescia will go to a playoff to decide the third and final promotion place.

Ligue 1

Title race

Paris Saint-Germain were crowned Ligue 1 champions for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons, claiming a record-extending 12th French title in the process.

European qualification

Ligue 1, unlike its peers on this list, only gets three automatic Champions League places, while the fourth-placed finisher goes into the qualifying stage of the tournament. Four teams are duking it out to grab the final two automatic spots and join PSG at Europe’s top table.

Currently, fifth place in Ligue 1 will go to the Europa League, while finishing sixth will be rewarded with a Conference League spot. That could change if PSG win the Coupe de France, though; they’re in the final against Lyon on May 25, and victory for the capital-based outfit will see the league’s sixth-place finisher jump into the Europa League.

That cup final will also have a direct impact on France’s Conference League spot, which could yet go to the seventh-place finisher.

Relegation and promotion

The bottom two finishers in Ligue 1 are relegated automatically, while the team that ends in 16th place heads to a promotion-relegation playoff.

Clermont Foot are still alive, barely, with two games remaining, but the best they can hope for is a playoff place.

Auxerre, who were relegated last season, ensured an immediate return to the French top flight by clinching the Ligue 2 title. One of Saint-Etienne or Angers will finish second and join them, with the other going to the promotion playoff.